To beat the bear, you have to think like the bear. Here’s how…
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Dear Bankless Nation,
If this is your first bear market, you’re probably fighting the urge to bury your head in the sand and wish that it all just goes away.
Don’t do that!
There’s a lot to be gained from engaging with Web3 in times like these — you just have to adjust your perspective.
Today, Frogmonkee offers up strategies for beginner, intermediate, and advanced crypto traders that will have you best positioned for the next bull market.
We’ve also got some words of wisdom on how to keep your mind focused.
Remember: To beat the bear, you have to think like the bear.
Let’s do it together.
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– Bankless
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First things first: are we in a bear market?
Let’s get our basic definitions aligned. Let’s consider the definition offered by our old friend Investopedia:
“A bear market is when a market experiences prolonged price declines. It typically describes a condition in which securities prices fall 20% or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment.” – Investopedia
Okay, we have questions: What are “prolonged price declines?” How is “pessimism and negative inventor sentiment” defined? “20%” drops? That’s a bad Tuesday in crypto. In 2018, the market experienced drawbacks of 80% or more. Okay, so let’s try another way…
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David put it well when he wrote:
“Instead of trying to categorize recent price action as a bear market or not, ask yourself, does this feel like a bear market? If yes, then act accordingly. If not, then act accordingly.” – 5 reasons to be excited for the bear market
In my degen niche of crypto, I’ve noticed a tangible retraction in enthusiasm. Fewer people are apeing into new NFT projects or taking risks with small-cap tokens, while more are converting their tokens into ETH/BTC or stables.
A quick look at the market shows we’re far, far down from ATHs. According to CMC, crypto’s market cap peaked back in early November at just under $3T. As of writing, crypto sits at roughly $1.25T.
That’s a 58% fall over the span of 7 months.
Even after accounting for crypto’s volatility, we’re still looking at three times the drawdown from the 20% heuristic.
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Evaluating your risk profile
Before we dive into any strategies, I want to first talk about risk profiles. A risk profile is a tool that investors use to identify if a particular investment falls within their appetite for risk. Here are some high-level examples:
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Aggressive Risk Profile
Mostly small cap tokens, some BTC and ETH, no stables.
Willing to use protocols that have not been audited
Invests across dozens of different projects
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Moderate Risk Profile
Majority BTC and ETH, some stablecoins, and some small cap tokens
Stakes in higher yield pools, but is determined to understand the protocol first
Uses a small percentage of portfolio to ape into projects
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Conservative Risk Profile
Entirely BTC, ETH, and stables
Stables are parked in a Compound market earning low single digit yields
Does not keep more than 5-10% net worth in crypto
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Having a risk profile in mind will frame what types of investments you pursue in general. For a bear market, I’d recommend between a conservative to moderate risk profile as more aggressive risk profiles benefit from market manias indicative of bull markets.
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A few Sample portfolios for the bear market:
• Figure out your balance: stables, low risk, medium risk, & high-risk plays.
• Then decide on Projects. I created a few sample portfolios for you to look at. (education, not financial advice )
Let’s imagine that you are the founder of a company that has successfully raised an angel or institutional round and are currently in a situation where you have 12 months or less of runway.
The hardest part of dealing with a low runway situation is managing your own psychology. You have to simultaneously manage your own anxiety to not be overly negative about your prospects, but also not be irrationally positive. It’s a delicate balance.
The first step is to understand exactly how much cash and runway you have.
If you are Default Dead then it is your responsibility as a founder to immediately take actions to become Default Alive. The mechanisms by which you can move from Default Dead to Default Alive are straightforward: Either you need to grow revenue more quickly, cut costs, or both.
“”I got hooked on video lectures back in the Stone Ages—when you had to order them on DVD. Now that they’ve moved to streaming, I’ve watched courses on many different sites, but I’ve probably spent the most time on Wondrium. (It used to be known as the Great Courses.)
Today’s dominant internet platforms are built on aggregating users and user data. As these platforms have grown, so has their ability to provide value — thanks to the power of network effects — which has enabled them to stay ahead.
For example, Facebook’s (now Meta’s) data on user behavior helped it fine-tune its algorithms to a point that its content feed and ad targeting were dramatically better than what competitors could offer. Amazon, meanwhile, has exploited its broad view into customer demand to both optimize delivery logistics and develop its own product lines. And YouTube has built a massive library of videos from a wide array of creators, enabling it to offer viewers content on almost any topic.
In these business models, locking in users and their data is a key source of competitive advantage. As a result, traditional internet platforms typically do not share data even in aggregate — and they make it difficult for users to export their social graphs and other content. So, even if users grow dissatisfied with a given platform, it’s often not worth it to leave.
But all of this might be changing. While it’s hard for newcomers to challenge “Web 2.0” companies like Meta on their own terms, now companies — working in what they’re calling a “Web3” model — are proposing a novel value proposition. Despite all the public conversations around the metaverse and various hyper-financialized NFT projects, Web3, more than anything, is a fundamentally different approach that some developers have agreed to. It’s based on the premise that there’s an alternative to exploiting users for data to make money — and that instead, building open platforms that share value with users directly will create more value for everyone, including the platform.
In Web3, instead of platforms having full control of the underlying data, users typically own whatever content they have created (such as posts or videos), as well as digital objects they have purchased. Moreover, these digital assets are typically created according to interoperable standards on public blockchains, instead of being privately hosted on a company’s servers. This makes the assets “portable,” in the sense that a user can, in principle, leave any given platform whenever they want by unplugging from that app and moving — along with their data — to another one.
Exploring how we can bridge the Web 2 and Web 3 ecosystems in the long run and how identity plays a big part in it.
I think Web 3 is here to stay. By Web 3 I mean the philosophy, concepts and technologies that prioritize user choice and ownership, and can be used to build decentralized services. Blockchains (e.g. Ethereum, Solana), tokens, protocols (e.g. IPFS, TheGraph, Lit), services (e.g. ENS, Filecoin), dApps and users’ keys make up Web 3 (not meant as an exhaustive list).
Now, decentralization is emerging across biotech in various ways: Startups are launching outside the major hubs, sharing lab space, hiring across borders, and collaborating on research projects.
We’re even seeing new types of organizations beyond traditional companies, such as decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), enter the drug-development game — with funding to boot.
Decentralized models are still experimental. But they lower the barrier to entry for smaller companies and harness the talents of a more diverse pool of scientists, potentially hastening the development of new drugs and, hopefully, effective cures.
